When it comes to navigating the Victoria real estate market, staying ahead of the curve means digging deeper than the headlines. My goal is to provide insights that help buyers, sellers, and real estate enthusiasts understand the bigger picture—how data, market dynamics, and policy changes intersect to shape opportunities. Whether you're looking for a home, considering selling, or just keeping a pulse on the market, having this broader perspective is key to making informed decisions.
As autumn settles in and the market transitions into its cooler months, Victoria continues to reveal trends and patterns that could impact your next move. Here’s what’s happening:
1. Pace of the Market
October 2024 saw the median days on market increase slightly to 35, compared to 29 days in October 2023. While this is slightly above the ten-year October average of 30.2 days, it’s a marked improvement from January 2024’s 45 days. September 2024 recorded a median of 33 days, showcasing a steady flow of activity as the market maintains its rhythm heading into winter.
For those navigating Victoria real estate, understanding the pace of the market is crucial in setting expectations, whether you’re listing or looking to buy.
2. Sales Dynamics
Sales in October 2024 surged to 649—a substantial jump from the 401 sales recorded in October 2023. Interestingly, this year saw one of the rare instances where sales increased from September (567 sales) to October, a pattern observed only three times in the past decade. Experts link this to recent interest rate cuts, which have bolstered buyer activity.
The Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement on December 11 is one to watch, with markets anticipating another 0.25% cut that could further influence buyer behavior.
3. Active Listings
Active listings for October 2024 stood at 2,840, reflecting a seasonal decline from September’s 3,030. However, this figure is higher than October 2023’s 2,618 and slightly above the ten-year average of 2,608.4. As we move deeper into winter, it’s typical to see inventory dip further, with many sellers opting to hold off until the more competitive spring market.
This ebb and flow in inventory is a hallmark of the Victoria real estate market, and timing your move strategically can make a significant difference.
4. New Listings Surge
In October 2024, 1,140 new listings came to market, down from September’s 1,376 but above the ten-year October average of 953.8. This seasonal decline is a regular feature of the market as activity slows leading into the holiday season.
5. Mortgage Landscape
Interest rates are on a downward trajectory as the Bank of Canada continues its dovish policy. Recent cuts of 0.25% in June, July, and September were followed by a significant 0.5% reduction in October, lowering the overnight rate to 3.75%.
Variable mortgage rates have dropped to the low 5% range, increasing buyers’ purchasing power as the stress test adjusts accordingly. Fixed rates, which remain unaffected by BoC rate cuts, are in the mid-to-low 4% range but may see pressure from rising bond yields.
With another rate cut of at least 0.25% expected in December, this trend presents an opportunity for buyers, though it also raises concerns about the Canadian dollar due to the widening rate gap with the U.S.
6. Looking Forward
In October 2024, the benchmark price for a single-family home in the Victoria Core was $1,300,200, reflecting a slight 0.8% decline from October 2023 but an increase from September 2024’s $1,279,700. Condominium prices in the Victoria Core dropped 5.4% year-over-year, landing at $547,800, compared to $578,800 in October 2023 and $553,400 in September 2024.
Across other Vancouver Island communities, price trends were varied:
Campbell River: A 6% year-over-year increase brought the benchmark price of single-family homes to $701,400.
Comox Valley: Prices rose 1%, reaching a benchmark of $838,400.
Cowichan Valley: A slight 1% decline brought prices to $769,300.
Nanaimo: The benchmark price dipped slightly to $809,000.
Parksville-Qualicum: Prices climbed 1%, with a benchmark of $896,400.
Port Alberni: A 2% increase pushed prices to $502,100.
North Island: Single-family home prices rose 6% to $430,300.
Looking ahead, I anticipate modest price growth through spring 2025. The combination of rate cuts and upcoming mortgage rule changes creates a unique opportunity for buyers to enter the market before activity intensifies in the spring.
If you’re looking for expert advice, have questions about these trends, or want to discuss your real estate goals, I’m here to help. Let’s connect and make the most of the opportunities in the Victoria real estate market!