In 2026, the most reasonable expectation for Victoria BC real estate is a market that feels more balanced than “frenzy” years: more choice for buyers, clearer pricing signals for sellers, and negotiations that depend heavily on the micro-market (Oak Bay vs. Gordon Head vs. Westshore vs. Saanich Peninsula). VREB ended December 2025 with 2,544 active listings, with the Victoria Core single-family benchmark down year-over-year while condo values were roughly flat. Provincial and bank forecasts also lean toward limited price growth or mild declines, depending on inventory and interest-rate conditions.
What’s the most likely Victoria BC real estate outlook for 2026?
Most indicators point to stability over volatility.
That does not mean every neighbourhood behaves the same way. A character home near Willows Beach can trade differently than a newer build in Broadmead or a condo near the Inner Harbour.
Here is the plain-English 2026 outlook based on current reputable signals:
Inventory matters more than headlines. VREB noted inventory was a major factor in 2025 and is expected to keep shaping 2026 conditions.
Provincially, “balanced” is the theme. BCREA’s Q4 2025 forecast describes BC as expected to be balanced in 2026 with limited price growth at the provincial level.
Major bank economists are more cautious on pricing in B.C. RBC’s forecast update anticipates price softness into 2026 in Ontario and B.C. if inventory stays high, even if sales activity improves.
What this means if you value trust over tactics
If you are downsizing or planning a family move, 2026 is likely a year where preparation and positioning outperform “timing the market.”
Will Victoria home prices go up or down in 2026?
No one can promise future prices, and Victoria is not a single market. Still, credible forecasts suggest muted movement rather than dramatic swings.
What we can say (without overpromising)
Victoria Core benchmarks softened year-over-year for single-family homes in December 2025.
Condo benchmarks in the Victoria Core were close to flat year-over-year in December 2025.
BCREA expects limited price growth provincially in 2026 (their “average price” forecast reflects province-wide composition and is not a promise for any neighbourhood).
RBC expects price declines to extend into 2026 in B.C. if inventory and competition among sellers remain elevated.
Practical takeaway
For affluent, careful buyers and sellers, 2026 looks like a year where:
Well-priced, well-presented homes still sell.
Overpriced listings can sit—especially when buyers have options.
Condition, layout, and location (quiet streets, walkability, views) matter more than generic “market heat.”
What about interest rates and mortgages in 2026?
Rates are a major swing factor, but forecasts differ—even among professionals.
RBC’s base case includes the Bank of Canada holding policy steady through 2026 (their forecast).
Scotiabank Economics’ outlook discusses an extended hold with potential tightening later in 2026, emphasizing uncertainty.
What to do with that uncertainty (especially if you’re downsizing)
If you are selling a long-held family home and buying a condo or townhome, consider:
Getting a rate hold early (when appropriate).
Stress-testing your budget for a range of outcomes (not just the “best case”).
Aligning sale and purchase dates to reduce pressure.
Please consult a qualified mortgage professional for advice specific to your situation.
Is inventory improving in Greater Victoria?
Inventory has been a defining story.
VREB reported 2,544 active listings at the end of December 2025, up year-over-year from December 2024.
Why inventory matters so much for families and downsizers
More listings typically means:
More negotiating room (subject to neighbourhood and property type)
Less urgency (time to review strata documents, inspection results, and floorplans)
More emphasis on “good value” listings rather than speculative bidding
What does the rental market and housing policy mean for 2026?
Even if you are not a landlord, rental conditions and housing policy can influence buyer demand and the condo market.
1) Short-term rental rules are tighter province-wide
B.C. implemented a provincial short-term rental registry (hosts and platforms must be registered, and listings require registration numbers).
For condo owners and investors, this can affect:
The pool of buyers for certain buildings
How some units are used (short-term vs. long-term)
Strata enforcement, bylaws, and compliance planning
2) Speculation and vacancy tax rates increased starting in 2026
The Province has stated that speculation and vacancy tax rates increase starting in 2026, with different rates depending on owner category.
Please consult a qualified accountant or lawyer for specific advice on how any tax may apply to you.
3) Rental supply has been expanding in Victoria’s region
CMHC noted Victoria turnover rose and that growth in purpose-built rental stock— including completions in Saanich—helped ease tight conditions.
This can matter because rental conditions often influence:
Investor activity
Condo demand in specific price bands
The “move-up” chain for local buyers
[LINK TO OAK BAY LISTINGS] | [LINK TO SAANICH PENINSULA HOMES] | [LINK TO VICTORIA CONDOS]
What does the 2026 market mean for Oak Bay, Saanich, and the Saanich Peninsula?
In Greater Victoria, micro-markets are everything.
A few grounded observations (not promises):
Oak Bay
Oak Bay often rewards street quality and walkability—think being able to stroll to Oak Bay Village for coffee and errands without feeling like the car is mandatory.
In balanced markets, buyers can become pickier about:
Lot usability and privacy
Noise exposure (arterials vs. quiet side streets)
Renovation quality (especially if the home looks “updated” but isn’t)
Saanich (Gordon Head, Cadboro Bay, Broadmead)
Saanich has a wide range—from family-focused pockets near parks to executive-style homes.
In 2026, expect many buyers to focus on:
Floorplans that support aging-in-place or multi-generational living
Energy efficiency and ongoing maintenance realities
Commute practicality (and the lifestyle tradeoffs)
Saanich Peninsula (Sidney, Brentwood Bay)
For downsizers, the Peninsula can be compelling for:
Walkable Sidney living
Proximity to the airport/ferries (helpful for families who travel)
A calmer pace without giving up amenities
The key is aligning lifestyle goals with the property type that truly fits: condo, townhome, patio home, or smaller detached.
Downsizing in 2026: what smart sellers are doing differently
Downsizing is rarely just a transaction. It is a life change.
If you are moving from a long-time family home in Victoria, Oak Bay, or Saanich, here are high-impact steps that reduce stress and improve outcomes in balanced markets:
1) Start with a “right-sizing” plan, not a listing date
Decide what matters most: single-level living, elevator building, walkability, parking, guest space, storage.
Make a list of “must-haves” and “nice-to-haves.”
2) For condos and townhomes, treat strata review like due diligence
Read minutes, depreciation reports, bylaws, and fee schedules.
Consider upcoming building projects and reserve funding.
3) Price for the current buyer—not the memory of 2021–2022
Balanced markets reward:
Strong presentation
Clean inspection narrative
Realistic pricing based on recent comparable activity
4) Plan for taxes and legal logistics early
Downsizers often encounter questions about:
Capital gains on non-principal residences
Estate planning and probate-related timing
Property transfer tax considerations
Please consult a qualified accountant or lawyer for specific advice.
Buying in 2026: how families can reduce risk (and pressure)
For families moving within Greater Victoria, the best “forecast” is a process that keeps options open.
A practical approach:
Get financing clarity early (so you can act calmly when the right home appears).
Choose neighbourhoods by lifestyle: parks, schools, commute, walkability, future flexibility.
Protect your downside with sensible conditions (inspection, strata review, title), tailored to the property.
In 2026, the advantage often goes to buyers who are:
Prepared, but not rushed
Thorough, but not paralyzed
Local in their thinking (street-by-street, building-by-building)
[LINK TO HOME VALUATION] | [LINK TO CONTACT PAGE]
2026 “watch list”: the five factors we’ll be tracking closely
If you want a simple dashboard for 2026, focus on these:
Inventory levels (overall and by property type)
Benchmark trends by segment (single family vs condo vs townhome)
Interest-rate direction and mortgage costs (watching forecasts and actual decisions)
Policy and regulatory changes impacting rentals and investor demand
Local absorption (how quickly well-priced homes are being taken up in each neighbourhood)
FAQ: quick answers for Victoria buyers and sellers in 2026
Is 2026 a “good time” to buy in Victoria?
If your finances are solid and the home fits your life, 2026 may offer more choice and calmer decisions than peak-competition years. The right answer depends on your timeline, property type, and neighbourhood.
Is 2026 a “good time” to sell?
It can be, especially if your home is well-presented and priced to match current conditions. In balanced markets, strategy matters more than slogans.
Should we wait for rates to drop?
No one can time rates reliably. If rates shift, prices and competition can shift too. A better approach is building a plan that works across a range of scenarios.
Do short-term rental rules affect condo demand?
They can, particularly in buildings and areas where buyers previously planned short-term use. Always review strata bylaws and applicable provincial requirements.
This article is general information and does not create an agency relationship. For advice tailored to your circumstances, connect with a licensed real estate professional.
Next Step
Thinking about Victoria’s 2026 market forecast and what it means for your family, your downsizing plan, or your next purchase? Reach out to The Webbers (Pemberton Holmes Real Estate) for a no-pressure conversation.